SBI Q4 Earnings Preview : Profit May Decline 22% YoY Amid Rising Provisions

SBI Q4 Earnings Preview FY25 Results : Profit May Dip on Higher Provisions, NII Expected to Rise Marginally

India’s biggest public area bank, the State Bank of India (SBI), is set to announce its financial results for the fourth quarter of FY25 on Saturday, May 3, 2025. Market analysts expect a combined overall performance, with the lender’s internet earnings likely to return below stress due to multiplied provisioning prices, even as net interest earnings (NII) is expected to register marginal growth.

SBI Q4 Earnings Preview: Profitability to Take a Hit on Provisioning Spike

As in step with estimates from main brokerages including Nuvama Institutional Equities, ElaraCapital, IIFL Capital, and JM Financial, SBI’s profit after tax (PAT) for the March quarter is anticipated to fall between four.5% and 22% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. The bank’s PAT is projected within the range of ₹16,208 crore to ₹19,760 crore, signaling a sharp profit moderation.

JM Financial is the most bearish among the analysts, forecasting a 22% drop in PAT. Nuvama projects a fairly modest decline of 4.5%, buoyed by using a consistent loan boom and enhancing operational metrics.

SBI Q4 Earnings Preview: Net Interest Income to Show Modest Growth

Despite the anticipated decline in profitability, SBI’s NII is expected to increase modestly by 1–4% YoY, coming in among ₹42,086 crore and ₹43,320 crore. This growth will largely be supported by persistent momentum in mortgage disbursements, while growing investment charges because of slower deposit mobilization ought to weigh on net interest margins (NIMs).

Nuvama projects an NII of ₹42,690 crore, with NIMs shrinking by 32 basis points YoY to 2.98%. ElaraCapital sees NII growing to ₹4 3,004 crore, a three.2% upward thrust YoY, and expects NIMs to common around 3.2%.

SBI Q4 Earnings Preview: Pre-Provision Operating Profit Faces Pressure

Pre-provision running profit (PPoP), a key measure of a bank’s operational performance, is also in all likelihood to stay subdued. Estimates propose a YoY decline of 5–18% in PPoP. Nuvama pegs PPoP at ₹27,290 crore, at the same time as JM Financial sees it lower at ₹23,668 crore — an 18% dip YoY.

IIFL Capital expects PPoP at ₹26,570 crore, down 8% YoY, citing margin compression and higher operating fees as the main individuals for the decline.

SBI Q4 Earnings Preview: Loan and Deposit Growth Healthy; however, Funding Costs Rise

SBI’s balance sheet continued to extend in Q4FY25. The financial institution’s mortgage e book is anticipated to have grown by using 12.Four% to fourteen% YoY, attaining among ₹forty one.65 lakh crore and ₹forty two.Thirteen lakh crore, pushed by means of retail and SME phase momentum. Deposits also are projected to grow by way of around 10–12% YoY, growing to ₹53.86–54.80 lakh crore.

However, analysts warn that the tempo of deposit growth continues to lag in the back of mortgage growth, doubtlessly growing the value of funds inside the coming quarters.

SBI Q4 Earnings Preview: Provisions Spike, Affecting Bottom Line

A giant upward push in provisions has emerged as a key element at the back of the expected pressure on SBI’s Q4 earnings. JM Financial and IIFL Capital anticipate provisions to greater than double YoY, with IIFL pegging it at ₹3,230 crore and Elara watching for ₹3,304 crore. These figures reflect a sharp rise from previous quarters and recommend higher credit score expenses impacting profitability.

Elara mentioned that slippages remained contained, however, the increase in provisioning is likely a result of cautious provisioning buffers and macroeconomic uncertainties.

Key Monitorables for Investors

While an asset fine seems strong, analysts will intently watch for the control statement on slippages, healing trends, and capital elevating plans. Elara highlighted that return on property (RoA) sustainability and SBI’s outlook on net interest margins will also be key takeaways from the earnings call.

In precis, SBI’s Q4FY25 effects are predicted to mirror operational resilience with modest growth in center earnings, however profitability may also take a knock because of provisioning charges. Despite close to-term demanding situations, analysts stay assured within the financial institution’s lengthy-time period structural power and prudent balance sheet control.

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